The More Things Change

Now that the Wolves have processed their final preseason trade, they finally have settled on a 15 man roster for the year. And unless we see a major drop in a young player's market value (or an in-his-prime star, like Kirilenko), I imagine this 15 man squad is going to remain static for the rest of the season. The only 4 players that aren't young or expiring are Greg Buckner, Marko Jaric, Mark Madsen, and Antoine Walker. I expect Jaric to be the only one to draw interest from other teams, but I doubt they would offer anything for beyond expiring contracts, which the Wolves might not even need at this point.

So I went back and adjust my numbers for the 2007-2008 season, adding in Walker and Doleac's performances, and so my prediction has now dropped from 35 to 32 wins.

Player	PS	GP	Min	PTS
Corey Brewer	SF	82	2050	654
Greg Buckner	SG	31	652	145
Michael Doleac	C	60	1112	318
Randy Foye	PG	82	1640	727
Ryan Gomes	PF	82	1932	749
Gerald Green	SF	82	1476	699
Marko Jaric	SG	82	1264	295
Al Jefferson	PF	76	3060	1460
Mark Madsen	PF	20	270	35
Rashad McCants	SG	76	2020	853
Theo Ratliff	C	70	1050	270
Craig Smith	PF	82	1510	598
Sebastian Telfair	PG	82	1066	323
Antoine Walker	PF	51	578	20

So with that we're right back to last year, which would be considered an accomplishment by most. But one thing to consider is whether there is relationship between a team's possession percentages from year to year. The short answer: no. The long answer: depends on the team. Going back five years, there is a definite relationship for some teams (Houston, Washington, and New Jersey), and not for others (Minnesota). Having a possession percentage of 50% would give the Timberwolves between 28 and 35 wins. An average number of points surrendered per possession would give the Timberwolves a Pythagorean Win number of 32 wins.

Just for fun, I decided to use the +/- numbers for the Wolves to get an alternative win projection. I used the +/- from last year for all of the players except for Ratliff and McCants, where I used their preseason numbers. I also didn’t count any +/- for Brewer. Using this system, the Wolves should be expected to win 26 games next season. Not a successful season, certainly, but not a historically bad season like some are predicting. Now, Brewer’s preseason +/- is -14.7 per 48 minutes. When combined with the 2050 minutes I expect him to receive, that comes out to a +/- total of -628 points for Brewer and a +/- of 988 for the Wolves. That changes the expected Wolves wins to 9 for the season. Either the +/- for the preseason is off (which is most likely) or else Brewer is going to be dreadful. If it’s the latter, I doubt they’ll be playing him 2000 minutes.