...and the foul!

The Wolves are currently the second worst team in the NBA at drawing a foul (.210 FTA/FGA) behind Portland. The league average is .315, the league best is .486. An example of how poorly the Wolves are drawing the foul: the league leader in FTA/FGA is Memphis. While they have taken 17 more free throw shots than the Wolves, they have attempted 110 fewer field goals. Being the worst in FTA/FGA isn't necessarily the end of the season; the worst team in the league last year was the Phoenix Suns. Of course, the Suns had the fourth lowest turnover rate, and the third lowest number of personal fouls and opponent free throws (these numbers are particularly incredible since the Suns had the third highest pace last season). So the Wolves free throw issue is only a woe if they have an amazingly low number of turnovers, personal fouls, and opponent free throws.

The importance of the free throws becomes apparent when you compare the Wolves to the Pacers. The Wolves turnover the ball less often (10.2% to 11.6%), shoot equally well (44.5% to 44.6%), and are better with threes (40% to 38%). The Wolves also grab a greater percentage of their rebounds, both offensively and defensively (26.7% to 26.6% and 76.52% to 70.32%, respectively). Yet the Wolves are 0-3 while the Pacers are 3-0. There are two reasons for this. The first is that despite the Wolves being considered a defensive team, their opponents are currently shooting 47.39%. The Pacers' opponents are shooting 39.85%. Part of this is due to the matchups to date, as the Pacers' opponents have 40.85% in their other games, while the Wolves opponents' are shooting a healthy 45.65%. But the other problem the Wolves have is in their free throw shooting. The Wolves are 29th of 30 in free throws (18); the Pacers are 11th (28). The best way to show the impact this has on the teams is thus: the Wolves (0-3) have scored 287 point and made 38 free throws. The Pacers (3-0) have scored 327 points and made 67 free throws. So 72.5% of the difference between the points scored between the two teams is the difference in free throws. It's important to remember that the Pacers aren't even a superlative free throw team; they can best be defined as above average. It's also important to note that even if you change the Wolves FT/G to league average (and they had the same FT% that they had in the specific games), they would only be 1-2 right now.

Now it's important to remember this is just three games for each team; a huge (or terrible) game for either team would greatly impact their standings. If we assume these numbers would stand for the rest of the season, than Indiana would beat last year's best opposing field goal percentage by 3% (the difference between the best and worst opp fg% last year was 5.66%). The worst fta/fga ratio last year was .266. If the Wolves keep their pace of getting to the line they are going to be at .056 below that mark (the spread from last year was .126). Now I doubt that either the Wolves or the Pacers are going to be record setting teams this year. But to date a large part of the Wolves' troubles can be traced to the line.

(Note: the data here is current as of Tuesdays games. As of today the Pacers are now 3-1. However, I think the example is still illustrative of the Wolves' difficulties)