Saturday, November 10, 2007

Oh Ye Gods!

Once again the Wolves collapsed at line. It's gotten to the point that even the Star Tribune has started commented on it. The result is, of course, another loss for a team that really needs to get it's act together when it comes to getting to the line. But let's address a few issues surrounding fouls and free throws first. The Wolves still have the highest rate of fouls per game (30), and are twelfth on the list of overall fouls (they are tied for least number of games played to date). And individual numbers are just as atrocious. The average NBA player is committing a foul once every 10.8 minutes right now. The Wolves are fouling once every 8.8 minutes (worst in the league). They only Wolves above the average right now are Michael Doleac (who's logged 3 minutes this season), Theo Ratliff, and Ryan Gomes. Al Jefferson is a bit below average, at 10.3 minutes per foul. The worst offenders are Craig Smith and Corey Brewer, who foul once every 4.6 and 4.9 minutes respectively. While there is a tendency for veteran players to get the benefit of the doubt in calls, the severity of the issue seems to make it safe to assume that teams are going to be going to free throw line a lot against the Wolves. This is part of a total decline on the parts of the Wolves players from their performance last year. Last season they went 9.2 minutes per foul. This should put them on pace to commit 2258 fouls this season (assuming they play the 2006-2007 league average for minutes). Of course, if you multiply 30 by 82, you can make an assumption of 2460 fouls for the season, which is an absolutely staggering amount.

So, free throws. The Wolves are currently the worst team in free throws by pretty much any measure you want to use barring percentage (they are shooting 72.1%, which allows them to scale the dizzying heights of mediocrity to 22nd). Last year, these Wolves fta/fga was 0.271, while the league average was 0.327. In other words, they were getting to the line 82.9% of the league average. This year, they are hitting the line for every 0.194 field goal attempts, or 61.4% of the rest of the NBA. I don't know if there's anything I can truly add to the discussion beyond this. Even if they were league average at getting to the line, they would still be 1-3 (though the games would have been much more respectable).

And now for the non-free throw factoid: Currently the Wolves have been outscored 414 to 380 (-34) in their games. If you take away their worst quarter in each game (the 4th against Denver and New York, the 3rd against Orlando and LA), the Wolves end up outscoring their opponents 301 to 297 (+4), which is a 38 point swing. Why is this important? Well, the Wolves are being outscored by 9.5 points in these four quarters, which is disastrous for any team. But beyond those quarters, the Wolves are holding their own against their opponents. And on a positive note, they've gone from -11 to -11 to -8 to -8, so we can hold out hope that they are improving in this regard.

Next time: Something besides free throws, let us hope.

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