Sunday, November 11, 2007

1-8

No, that is not the prediction for the Wolves' record come November 22. That is the shooting line for Sebastian Telfair last night. While he had a nice line otherwise (4 assists and a steal versus a turnover and 3 fouls in 30 minutes), Telfair's shooting last night was completely indefensible. He was even 0-3 beyond the arc, which has been his strength until this point. So far the Wolves best advantage has been their three point shooting. They are fourteenth in the league (ninth until last night) in threes, and Rashad McCants (50%), Marko Jaric (40%), Ryan Gomes (40%), and Sebastian Telfair (38.5%) are shooting above league average (36%). The game last night highlighted the biggest flaw in the Wolves offense; at this point McCants is the only player that is above average in both three point and two point shooting. The current NBA average for 2 point shots is 47.3%, the Wolves are currently shooting 44.8%. Right now, the two point shooters for the Wolves are Craig Smith (55.3%), Greg Buckner (53.3%), McCants (51.6%), Al Jefferson (50%), and Theo Ratliff (48.3%). Now, having eight above average scorers is a good thing, and something that Timberwolves fans can feel optimistic about. But the problem is they not distributing their shots according to type. Buckner has taken 21 three pointers (33.3%), while Sebastian Telfair taken 39 two point attempts (28.2%). 35 of Gomes 50 shots have been from inside the arc, where's he's shooting 37.1%.

Of course, it's too early to put any faith in percentages. If Corey Brewer's true shooting % is scary right now (48.1%), it was Freddy Kruger on steroids before last night (37.5%). Since we're still in the section of the season were a single good game can vastly turn the stats of any player around, I'll avoid making any predictions or recommendations, save one each; the Wolves will be most successful by having McCants and Gomes/Jaric/Telfair force defenses to spread out, and then either feeding it in to Jefferson and Smith/Ratliff/Buckner or taking an open shot if they aren't challenged, and the Wolves will beat Sacramento on Wednesday for their first win.

My favorite stat of the night: Antoine Walker - DNP-CD. Walker fell of the cliff last year, and was my choice to be cut from the Wolves trade with Miami. He's currently shooting the team worst in field goal percentage (23.8%), three pointer percent (12.5%), and second worst in two pointers (30.8%, just ahead of Telfair's 28.2%). Also (to stretch an analogy) his true shooting percentage is so bad that it's beyond your regular monster into some sort of Gieger monster/Lynch hybrid.

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