Friday Night Lights

I’m sure everyone’s heard the phrase “today is the first day of the rest of your life”, and it is certainly true for the Timberwolves tonight, where they start the first game of the post-Garnett era. And due to Randy Foye’s injury, the Wolves will be looking at starting either Jaric or Telfair at point tonight. It’s not something that should please many Wolves fans, as it a pretty much a rock and hard place situation.

Player	FG%	FT%	TS%	FTA/FGA
Marko Jaric	41.85%	76.14%	51.00%	0.271
Sebastian Telfair	37.13%	81.82%	45.85%	0.232

Player	PTS/FGA	2P%	3P%	TR/48
Marko Jaric	0.94	43.33%	37.65%	5.669
Sebastian Telfair	0.82	40.17%	28.91%	3.277

Player	PF/48	DQ/48	PTS/48	TOR
Marko Jaric	5.299	0.031	11.43	14.75%
Sebastian Telfair	5.037	0.03	14.534	11.69%

Player	AS/48	ST/48	TO/48	BK/48
Marko Jaric	4.467	2.311	2.711	0.493
Sebastian Telfair	6.614	1.305	2.973	0.334

It’s pretty indisputable that Jaric is the better player of the two, as Telfair only beats him in free throw percentage (but Jaric is more likely to get to the line), points per 48 (but Jaric is 0.12 points per attempt better), turnover percentage (though Telfair makes more turnovers per minute), and assists (though Jaric didn’t play point guard last year). So what is to be done? I personally believe that they should split Foye’s time equally between the two at the start, with minutes being added or subtracted based on Telfair’s performance. The reason for this that Telfair is a young man on the last year of his contract, and unless he changes his ways is probably at the end of NBA career. In this situation, it behooves him to play within himself. The best way to do this would be to simply look for the pass when he’s on the court. If he can show himself to be a standard backup point (sans shooting), then he should earn himself more playing time while Foye is out. If he does anything else – steps up defense and the boards, finds a shooting stroke – that would be a bonus. My only concern with playing Telfair is how that his shooting is so woeful that anyone the Wolves play have a free defender roaming the floor. Here’s how bad Telfair was at shooting last year: his points per attempt ranked 321^nd out of 329 (of players that had at least 500 minutes). The goat of last year was Speedy Claxton, whose 0.68 was 0.05 points per attempt worse than any other player that had over 500 minutes. I don’t think Telfair will do this badly again, but it’s fairly obvious he is a backup at best. From his hotzone data, the Wolves best bet would be to get him beyond the arc on the left side (the Bruce Bowen area), or else open looks from the free throw line. His numbers at both spots aren’t outstanding but are passable.

Tonight the Wolves open their season against Denver. I’m of two minds about this game: on one hand I expect the Wolves to look disjointed, as two-thirds of the team left over the offseason. On the other hand, I’m expecting that we’ll see a starting lineup of Telfair/McCants/Gomes/Jefferson/Ratliff, meaning four of the five starters played together last season. Additionally, I think the Wolves should spread the floor with some 3 point shooting. Ryan Gomes, Marko Jaric, and Gerald Green all shot above league average from behind the arc last year, which the Wolves should exploit by having whichever one is being guarded by Iverson take distance shots. And if three Nuggets are chasing guys around the perimeter, that gives Jefferson more room to work in the block. The Camby-Martin-Nene-Najera quartet is going to be bad enough to deal with, but if the Wolves can’t find some range, Jefferson is going to have to deal with small forwards hassling him as well.