Sunday, November 4, 2007

The Cost of Gerald Green

While going through the old posts and attempting to edit the tables so they are, you know, readable, I realized that I got down to the specifics of Gerald Green. While I don't think much of his potential (my current rankings of the pups is roughly Jefferson, McCants, Foye, Smith, Gomes, Brewer, Green, Richard, Telfair), I do think the Wolves are shooting themselves in the foot in not picking up his option. His option would have cost the Wolves roughly $2.5 million. Assuming that he has a year similar to last year, does anyone think that Green is going to get less than that next offseason? Using a modified help value from Popcorn Machine (rebounds + assists + steals + blocks - (turnovers + personal fouls - (field goals attempted - field goals made))) I came up with some similar players to Green (22.75 PTS/48, 0.97 PFA, 52.10 TS%, -10.55 hv/48). First up, Jamal Crawford (22.69, 0.92, 51.66, -6.44). Playing for the Knicks, Crawford is due to make $7.9 million this year, $8.6 million next year, and has $9.3 and $10.8 million player options for the following two years. Of course, he was signed by Isiah Thomas, so that number is a tad inflated. Another player to look at is Willie Green (21.82, 0.88, 45.75, -11.23), who played out his rookie contract with Greenesque shooting, and is now making $3.5 million a year for the next four. Also on the list is Marcus Banks (21.17, 0.88, 49.69, -9.39). I don't think he needs any introduction to Wolves fans, so I'll just mention that he's making the midlevel exemption for the next four years. Juan Dixon is making $2.9 million this year, which is comparable to what Green would make next year. Of course Dixon's shooting numbers are all worse than Green's (19.38, 0.96, 51.59). I won't bore you by continuing to go on like this, but I will say that there are players with similarly terrible help values that shoot a lot better. They are guys like Ray Allen, Carmelo Antony, Michael Redd, and Wally Szczerbiak. If Green develops a solid shot within the next few years, he could be in line for a contracts like that

So what have we learned? Well, the approximate cost of someone like Gerald Green between $5.3 million (with Crawford's numbers), and $3.7 million (without). Best case scenario, by not exercising their option, the Wolves have cost themselves $1.2 million in salary. It's not the end of the world, but it's not something you want to see from a team that's dedicated to rebuilding.


CSE said...

I think this logic is somewhat flawed in that the Wolves are unlikely to re-sign Green at all. To oversimplify, they're *saving* $2.5 million by not extending Green. But, since they will need to fill the roster space left open when Green goes elsewhere next summer, let's assume they sign a veteran or perhaps a low draft pick for $1.25 million. The team has saved $1.25 million for an end-of-the-bench player who likely will never develop into anything more than a spot reserve.

Not extending Green was no mistake.

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